These computer simulation snapshots show projected Alexandrium fundyense cell concentrations produced under nine different weather and oceanographic scenarios representative of 2004 through 2012. All simulations were initiated using the latest cyst map based on data collected in fall 2012. The simulations incorporate sunlight, river runoff, and various wind and current patterns to predict the intensity and location of a bloom. These images do not show the highest anticipated cell concentrations, but rather the concentrations and distributions on the same day in May. This approach provides an ensemble forecast that includes years that had highly variable meteorological conditions. In all scenarios, the Alexandrium cell concentrations are moderate relative to past bloom simulations using different cyst maps to initiate the runs. (Figure by Dennis McGillicuddy, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Ruoying He, North Carolina State University) (Click image to enlarge)